Price $75 1596 Words Solution ID 12174 Case ID 4194

Groupe Ariel S A Parity Conditions and Cross Border Valuation

Overview of Case Solution

Excel Calculations

NPV Analysis (Peso)

Hurdle rate for Peso

Tax rate

TimeCost of purchasing the equipment

After tax Cash inflow from the sale of Manual equipment

After tax depreciation DepreciationCost savings from New equipmentTotal Cash flows

PV of cash flows

NPV

 

NPV Analysis (Euros)

Discount rate in France

Expected Inflation in France

Expected Inflation in Mexico 

Forward rate

Time

Year

MXN/EURO

Time

Year

Total Cash flows in Euros

PV OF CASH FLOWS

NPV IN EUROSTotal cash flows

PV OF CASH FLOWS

NPV IN EUROS

Questions Covered

Compute the NPV of Ariel-Mexico’s recycling equipment by counting incremental peso cash flows at a peso interest rate. How should this NPV be translated into Euros? Assume expected future inflation for France is 3% per year.

Compute the NPV in €s by translating future peso cash flows into €s at expected future spot rates. Note Ariel’s € hurdle rate for this asset class was 8%. Annual inflation rates are expected to be 7% in Mexico and 3% in France.

Compare the two sets of calculations and the corresponding NPVs. How and why do they differ? Which approach should Arno Martin use? Relate your answer to the textbook’s treatment of parity disequilibria in capital budgeting.

Suppose Mexican inflation is projected at 3% instead of 7% per year. Assume French inflation remains at 3%. How does this affect the NPV calculations?5. Suppose Ariel expects a significant real depreciation of the peso against the Euro. How should Martin incorporate this expectation into his NPV analysis? For simplicity, assume inflation is expected to be 3% in each country. What is its affect on NPV under each of the approaches in questions 1 and 2?6. Firms can face violations of the parity conditions in addition to the parity violation in Question

What might these violations be, and what might be their consequences?

Are there any real options embedded in Ariel’s decision? What is a real option, anyway?

Should Group Ariel approve the equipment to purchase?

Keywords

Capital budgeting, Exchange rates, Project evaluation, Securities analysis